The conflict in Syria has created one of the world’s most complex displacement crises. Following the ouster of Assad in December 2024, displaced households across Syria face constant uncertainty, weighing up whether to return to their communities or remain in camps and host communities where services may be more reliable and security more assured.
At present, humanitarian actors lack reliable data on how these migration intentions evolve, leading to risks of double counting of returnees, misdirected aid, and gaps in protection assistance.
No system currently tracks the decision‑making pathways of displaced households over time. This leaves response actors without the insights needed to design effective and evidence‑based interventions. While existing monitoring tools provide valuable snapshots, they cannot capture the fluid and iterative household decision‑making dynamics that ultimately drive migration patterns. Without longitudinal evidence, humanitarian programming struggles to adapt to these complex realities.
The project
IMPACT , through its initiative REACH, is piloting a longitudinal monitoring system to follow household‑level intentions and movements in camps across Syria. By combining baseline surveys with phone follow‑ups, the project will link stated intentions with actual movements, while applying sentiment analysis to capture emotional and psychological drivers.
Objectives
- Strengthen the evidence base for adaptive humanitarian programming.
- Provide a proof of concept for scaling longitudinal intent monitoring and sentiment analysis in Syria.
- Explore innovative methodologies for understanding complex migration dynamics and their practical application in complex humanitarian operations.
Expected impact
By linking household intentions with actual movements over time, the project will provide humanitarian actors in Syria with a stronger evidence base for protection and assistance interventions. This longitudinal monitoring will reduce the risk of double counting returns, enable more accurate tracking of displacement trends, and generate richer insights into the decision‑making processes of displaced families. Beyond immediate response improvements, the pilot will also serve as a proof of concept for future longitudinal studies and the integration of sentiment analysis into displacement monitoring systems. In doing so, it will offer methodological guidance, lessons learned, and practical recommendations that can be scaled or embedded within standard monitoring frameworks, ultimately contributing to more adaptive, evidence‑driven humanitarian programming in Syria.
Deliverables
- Key Findings Factsheet: Analysis of key findings, complimented by comparative profiles of households intending to stay versus leave, and how these decision-making calculations evolve.
- Methodological Guidance Note: Lessons learned and recommendations for scaling longitudinal monitoring.
Both outputs will be published in Q1 2026 and shared via humanitarian coordination platforms and the Resource Centre | Impact.
Stakeholders
IMPACT works in close coordination with the IDP Task Force, CCCM Cluster, Protection actors, and the Durable Solutions Platform, ensuring interoperability and alignment with broader displacement monitoring efforts.